I have to laugh just a wee bit when I read some of our political intellects opine on the outcome of the upcoming provincial Election. It seems the Guardian feels they deserve space in the newspaper every time they make a prediction on who will win and who will lose. In yesterdays Guardian (20th April) we had three apparent intellects all over the board with opinions on the winners. They were unanimous in predicting that only Liberals and PC’s would be elected. No NDP and no Green candidates would make it onto the legislative floor. Jeffery Collins PhD candidate in political science at Carleton University predicts a split 15-12 either Libs or PC’s. no Greens and no NDP. Next we have Jackson Doughart BA UPEI & MA Queens Univ in political science, he predicts 19 Libs 8 PC and O NDP- Greens. Finally Henry Srebrnik a political science professor at UPEI predicts 16 PC’s 11 Liberals, and no Green or NDP. When I take into account the combined educational achievements of our three learned friends, one has to wonder if we might get a more reliable prediction from Fred the Fiddler!
What makes these prediction so wildly opposite? what makes the Guardian think because these educators have impressive degrees they also have better foresight than the rest of us? I have no degrees and no political knowledge other than living with the recent dire consequences of voting decisions of the past. My prediction is it will be a close race between the Libs-PC’s, However, I do not discount the NDP or the Green Party’s from some success. I feel Peter Bevan Baker has a great chance of winning in district 17. No so sure about the NDP as I haven’t followed their campaign as closely. Nevertheless, both Liberals and PC’s have a great deal of baggage to haul around to voters doorsteps. I doubt they are getting warm welcomes from many islanders who still have the Ghiz/Sheridan scandals or the treatment of Olive Crane fresh in their memories. I don’t need a degree to predict the election outcome might hold a few surprises, there are a lot of angry and fed up people out there. So beware of the coming shifts and changes in the electoral landscape. Finally, I firmly predict we will see Peter Bevan Baker elected on May 4th 2015. I will not try to predict who might win the Stanley Cup, but I predict Arsenal will win the FA Cup on 30th May 2015. And those folks are my predictions with no “degree” of certainty
God Bless and keep reading